Ngokoqikelelo lwangoku, ngo-2036 abemi behlabathi baya kufikelela Abemi abali-8000 lezigidi, ngoxa eSpeyin kuqikelelwa ukuba inani liya kuba 53 izigidi. Oku kukhula kwabemi kunye ne ukuguga ngokubanzi kwabemi Babeka imingeni ebalulekileyo yentlalo, yezoqoqosho kunye nezempilo yoluntu, ngakumbi kumazwe aphuhlileyo njengeSpain. Kweli nqaku, siza kuphonononga iimpawu eziphambili, izizathu kunye nemiphumo yokuguga okuqhubekayo kwabantu baseSpain, kunye neembono zekamva ngokusekelwe kwidatha yakutshanje kunye neengcali zedemographic.
Ukunyuka okugqithisileyo kwabantu abadala: uhlalutyo lomxholo
Ukuguga kwabantu kuye kwaba yinkqubo yedemographic kwihlabathi jikelele, kodwa ngeziganeko ezikhethekileyo kumazwe aseYurophu. ESpeyin, ipesenti yabantu abangaphezu kweminyaka engama-65 ubudala Sele imele i-20,1% yabemi bebonke kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ifike kwi-2050% ngo-30,4. Ngokutsho kwe-demographer uJulio Pérez Díaz, ovela kwiZiko lezeNzululwazi zoLuntu kunye noLuntu lwe-CSIC, umlinganiselo wabantu abadala unokuba "kumashumi amabini aphezulu", oku kuthetha ukwanda okukhulu xa kuthelekiswa ne-18 yangoku.
Oyena nobangela wolu tshintsho lwabantu lufumaneka kwi inkqubela phambili kwezonyango kunye nokwanda kwe ixesha lokuphila. Abantwana abazalelwa kumazwe ahambele phambili namhlanje kulindeleke ukuba baphile ukuya kuthi ga kwiminyaka engama-100. Enyanisweni, ngo-2036, abantu abaninzi baseSpeyin baya kube beneminyaka engaphezu kwama-80 ubudala, yaye inxalenye enkulu iya kufikelela kwi-105.
Uluntu oluphawulwa lucelomngeni lokwaluphala
Ukwanda kwabemi abangaphezu kweminyaka engama-60 ubudala kuza kunye noku ukuxhaphaka okuphezulu kwezifo ezingapheliyo kunye ne-neurodeergenerative. U-Alberto Rábano, i-neuropathologist kwi-CIEN Foundation, ukhankanya ukuba, nangona ukuxhaphaka kwezi pathologi akuyi kunyuka, impembelelo yabo iya kuba nkulu ngenxa yokuba. inani elikhulu labantu liya kufikelela kwiminyaka yobudala. Ngokutsho kukaRábano:
«Ngokwebhayoloji sikulungele ukufikelela kwiminyaka eyi-120. Nangona kunjalo, umbuzo ophambili yindlela yokwenza ngelixa ugcina umgangatho wobomi.
Phakathi kwemingeni ephambili evela ekwaluphaleni zezi:
- Ukwanda kwezifo ze-neurodeergenerative: ezifana Alzheimer kunye Parkinson kaThixo. Ezi pathologies ziya kuba rhoqo ngenxa yokuba umngcipheko uyanda ngokukhula.
- Uxinzelelo kwinkqubo yomhlalaphantsi: Ngenxa yokuba inkqubo yaseSpain isekelwe kwimodeli yokuhlawula-njengoko-uhamba, ukuguga kunye nokuncipha kwamazinga okuzalwa kunokuvelisa intsilelo engapheliyo.
- Ingxaki yokhathalelo: Ngonxibelelwano lweentsapho ezimbalwa ezifumanekayo ngenxa yobukhulu bendlu encinci kunye nesithukuthezi, utyalo-mali olukhulu kwiinkonzo zentlalo yoluntu kunye noluntu luya kufuneka.
- Impembelelo yezoqoqosho: Ukonyuka kwexesha lokuphila kuya kunyusa iindleko zepenshini, ukuxhomekeka kunye nokhathalelo lwempilo.
Izinto ezibangela ukwaluphala
Kukho ezininzi izinto zentlalo kunye nenani labantu echaza ukuguga kwabemi baseSpain:
- Amazinga asezantsi okuzalwa: Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, inani labantu abazalwayo liye lehla kakhulu. Nangona ukunyuka okuncinci kokuzalwa kulindeleke ukuya ku-2058, baya kuhlala bengaphantsi kwenani lokufa.
- Ubomi obude obude: Ixesha elilindelekileyo ngoku lamadoda li 86 iminyaka kunye 90 iminyaka kubafazi, amanani aya kuqhubeka ekhula.
- Iibhalansi zokufuduka ezilungileyo: Nangona ukufudukela kwelinye ilizwe kuya kunceda ukunciphisa ukuhla kwendalo, akuyi kwanela ukuguqula ukuguga ngokubanzi.
- Impembelelo yokukhula komntwana: Isizukulwana sokukhula komntwana sifikelela kwiminyaka yomhlalaphantsi, nto leyo eya kongeza uxinzelelo kwinkqubo yepenshini kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yoluntu.
Uqikelelo luka-2036 nangaphaya
INational Institute of Statistics (INE) ilumkisa ukuba iintsingiselo zangoku ziya kukhokelela ekubeni a izinga eliphezulu kakhulu lokuxhomekeka. Ngokoqikelelo, ngo-2036 eSpain:
- El I-26% yabemi uya kuba ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-65 ubudala.
- Un I-8% iya kuba ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-80 ubudala.
- Amakhaya abantu abangenamaqabane omtshato aya kwanda kakhulu, afikelele kufutshane 28,9%.
La manani abonisa a inguqu emandla kwisakhiwo sabemi baseSpain, eya kuba nefuthe kwiinkalo ezininzi zobomi bemihla ngemihla, ukusuka kwimarike yomsebenzi ukuya kwiidolophu, intlalontle kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yezempilo.
Indlela yokujongana nokuguga kwabantu?
Ukuze uqikelele imingeni ebangelwa luluntu olukhula ngokuqhubekayo, kubalulekile ukuqalisa ukuphumeza imigaqo-nkqubo kunye nobuchule. Ezinye iindlela eziphambili ziquka:
- Izinto ezintsha kumayeza kunye neteknoloji: Ukuqhubela phambili unyango oluchasene nezifo ezinxulumene neminyaka kuya kuqinisekisa ukuguga okunempilo.
- Ukukhuthazwa kokuzalwa: Ukubonelela ngenkuthazo yezoqoqosho kunye neenkqubo zentlalo ezixhasa iintsapho eziselula kunokukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamazinga okuzalwa.
- Uhlengahlengiso lwenkqubo yomhlalaphantsi: Ukuhlaziya inkqubo yangoku ukuqinisekisa ukuzinza kwayo kwexesha elide.
- Ukudala uluntu olubandakanyayo: Yila izixeko ezinobuhlobo kubantu abadala, ukukhuthaza intatho-nxaxheba yoluntu kunye nokunciphisa ubulolo.
Ngendlela esebenzayo kunye nocwangciso olwaneleyo, iSpain inokuguqula imingeni yokuguga kwabemi ibe ngamathuba okwakha uluntu olubandakanyayo, oluzinzileyo nolusempilweni.
Ukuguga kwabemi akungomceli mngeni kuphela: ikwalithuba lokubonakalisa imilinganiselo yentlalo, izinto eziphambili ngokubaluleka kwezempilo yoluntu kunye nezicwangciso zezoqoqosho eziya kuchaza ikamva lelizwe lethu ukuya kunyaka wama-2036 nangaphaya.